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OPEC hinges attainment of global 6.9mbpd refining capacity addition on Dangote Refinery

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Dangote’s 650,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) oil refinery undertaking has been recognized as one of many oil distillation firms that will enhance international refining capability by 6.9 million barrels per day between 2021 and 2026.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC), which made this disclosure in its 2021 World Oil Outlook launched just lately, stated Africa’s medium-term outlook seems extra optimistic with 1.2 million barrels-per-day (mb/d) of recent capability anticipated by 2026; half of which is to be accounted for by the 650,000 bpd Dangote Oil Refinery undertaking in Nigeria, which is prone to come on stream in 2022.

The oil cartel recognized these initiatives, that are positioned largely in Nigeria, Angola and Ghana, to incorporate quite a few pre-fabricated modular services. “As soon as commissioned, these initiatives will assist to scale back product imports to Nigeria and West Africa and can, in flip, improve the usage of native crude. In North Africa, refinery capability expansions are possible in Algeria and Egypt,” it stated.

Just like earlier outlooks, OPEC stated refinery additions are concentrated in growing areas, such because the Asia-Pacific, the Center East and Africa. OPEC added that the full medium-term capability additions of 6.9 mb/d are composed of initiatives in several improvement levels.

“Round 3.5 mb/d of capability is below building or near this stage; therefore, these are the initiatives with the best certainty to materialize within the medium-term. There are additionally initiatives totalling 3.4 mb/d which are largely in early levels of improvement, however nonetheless superior sufficient when it comes to financing and engineering to be thought of ‘agency’ medium-term additions,” the worldwide organisation acknowledged.

These areas, it famous, account for nearly 90% of the additions within the interval 2021–2026. “The medium-term outlook accommodates a number of giant initiatives, a lot of which have petrochemical integration as effectively. These developments are in keeping with anticipated oil demand development,” it added.

Talking on investments in refinery initiatives, OPEC places the full international estimated required investments at $1.5 trillion within the 2021-2045 interval. It famous that these embody investments of almost $450 billion in new refinery initiatives and expansions of present items positioned largely in growing international locations, together with these within the Center East, Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America.

OPEC acknowledged, “Required investments within the midstream sector are estimated at round $1.1 billion in the identical time horizon and are attributed to the growth of the infrastructure for refining, storage and pipeline techniques, predominantly in growing areas, but additionally in giant oil exporting areas (e.g. the US & Canada and the Russia & Caspian). Thus, globally, oil-related funding wants within the long-term are estimated at $11.8 trillion.

“Lengthy-term (2021–2045) capability additions are anticipated at 14 mb/d, largely in growing international locations. Nevertheless, the Reference Case initiatives a major slowdown within the charge of additives. Africa and Different Asia-Pacific are the areas the place vital incremental capacities are anticipated, even after 2030.

The report stated, “The continent of Africa is house to an abundance of power sources, together with about 10 per cent of the world’s oil reserves; nonetheless, it nonetheless has problem in harnessing these treasured sources to satisfy its power demand. This, in flip, hinders efforts to offer reasonably priced and dependable power required for financial development and improvement.

“Africa has but to unlock its enormous potential within the power sector, though its ever-increasing inhabitants development and financial prospects require extra power. This downside is usually as a consequence of regional uncertainties, in addition to authorities insurance policies and regulatory frameworks guiding the power sector, and extra just lately, the efficiencies required to scale back CO2 emissions in exploration and manufacturing actions. These challenges have made it more and more troublesome to safe much-needed financing for E&P from overseas traders.”

The report famous that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic had additionally been a serious setback, particularly for these international locations relying closely on income from fossil fuels for his or her financial development and improvement.

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